• 91.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 95.6 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 85.6
• −6.0 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• +40.1 at this ground — averages 131.6 there (54 gm)
• vs them: averages 119.8 over 13 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 193 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.