27.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 28.8 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 24.4
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 548.9/game vs a 544.6 league average
−0.2 at this ground — averages 26.9 there (25 gm)
vs them: averages 26.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 72 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o28.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joevs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
80.5
50
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Joe 80.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
50
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Joe 1.4/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.2
62
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Joe 20.2/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
42
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Joe 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
42
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Joe 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
69
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Joe 0.3/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
49
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Joe 0.3/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.8
54
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Joe 28.8/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Joe80.5
50
PEN1576.6
25
Joe 80.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Joe1.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Post Contact Metres
548.9per game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At AAMI Park26.9(25)+4.8
Everywhere else22.0(27)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)13.0(4)-12.3
Dry games25.3(48)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+3.0
Avg diff %
+11%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARLeka Halasima31.673+131%
08-07WARAli Leiataua29.125-14%
08-07WARTaine Tuaupiki31.90-100%
08-07WARJacob Laban26.334+30%
08-01CBRXavier Savage32.926-21%
07-23PARSam Tuivaiti30.042+40%
07-16BRIReece Walsh25.729+13%
07-16BRIPreston Riki24.627+10%
Similar = season average within ±4.3 of Joe's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5