5.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.4 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.7
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.7 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 6.3 there (18 gm)
vs them: averages 3.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 24 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tackles
365.4per game · league avg 344.7
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Suncorp Stadium6.3(18)+0.4
Everywhere else5.9(57)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)7.8(5)+1.9
Dry games5.9(70)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Tackles
Avg diff
+0.7
Avg diff %
+22%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENJack Cole4.224+474%
08-07PENBilly Scott4.80-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o4.72-57%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins5.35-6%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar4.34-8%
08-01GLDDean Ieremia4.02-50%
08-01GLDJaylan De Groot4.80-100%
07-25CBYJacob Kiraz4.15+23%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Grant's. Computed from this app's own records.