21.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 20.8 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 21.5
+2.4 opponent leak — they concede 605.3/game vs a 544.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 51.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o20.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Grantvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
67.5
40
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Grant 67.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
28
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Grant 0.7/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.4
19
Tacklesunfavorable
38
340.0
Grant 5.4/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Grant 0.2/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
52
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Grant 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
48
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Grant 0.2/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
53
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Grant 0.4/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.8
39
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Grant 20.8/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Grant67.5
40
GLD1851.3
94
Grant 67.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Grant0.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Post Contact Metres
605.3per game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium49.0(1)+21.1
Everywhere else27.9(74)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)32.4(5)+4.5
Dry games27.9(70)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+12.2
Avg diff %
+61%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLKai O'Donnell19.636+84%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater23.121-9%
08-01WAREddie Ieremia-Toeava21.881+271%
07-26SGITyrell Sloan19.758+195%
07-26SGIJosh Kerr18.815-20%
07-26SGIEmre Guler22.40-100%
07-19MANJake Trbojevic19.811-44%
07-12MELTyran Wishart18.439+112%
Similar = season average within ±3.1 of Grant's. Computed from this app's own records.