• 16.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 16.3 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 16.1
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 16.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.