144.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 146.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 141.0
−9.5 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+9.3 at this ground — averages 153.5 there (34 gm)
vs them: averages 120.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o146.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Willvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
146.4
87
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Will 146.4/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.1
86
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Will 3.1/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.9
17
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Will 4.9/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
97
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Will 0.9/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
58
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Will 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
89
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Will 0.6/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
76
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Will 0.7/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
52.5
91
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Will 52.5/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Will146.4
87
PEN1576.6
25
Will 146.4/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Will3.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Run Metres
1576.6per game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At AAMI Park153.5(34)+6.6
Everywhere else146.9(40)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)164.7(3)+15.3
Dry games149.3(71)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Run Metres
Avg diff
+0.4
Avg diff %
+1%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARTaine Tuaupiki146.60-100%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris143.8160+11%
08-07WARMitchell Barnett148.7163+10%
08-07WARErin Clark134.9138+2%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak151.6141-7%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad128.8193+50%
08-01CBRKaeo Weekes159.8151-5%
08-01CBRMatthew Timoko147.6219+48%
Similar = season average within ±22.0 of Will's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry119.5