• 144.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 146.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 141.0
• −6.4 opponent leak — they concede 1613.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 160.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.