• 95.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 98.3 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 92.0
• −4.2 opponent leak — they concede 1613.3/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −24.2 wet forecast — averages 71.6 in the wet (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 130.1 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 15 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.