• 9.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.8 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.7
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 552.1/game vs a 545.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 8.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 31 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.