• 5.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.8 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.6
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 548.9/game vs a 544.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 13 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.