17.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 17.0 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 17.8
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
−5.3 at this ground — averages 12 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 9.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At CommBank Stadium12.0(4)-0.4
Everywhere else12.4(53)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)15.0(3)+2.8
Dry games12.2(54)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-1.5
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris16.518+9%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak15.715-5%
08-07WARErin Clark14.614-4%
08-07WARMitchell Barnett16.116-1%
08-07WARTaine Tuaupiki15.70-100%
08-01CBRJoseph Tapine14.814-5%
08-01CBRMatthew Timoko14.519+31%
07-23PARJordan Samrani15.816+1%
Similar = season average within ±2.5 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5