• 72.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 68.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 77.2
• +1.2 opponent leak — they concede 1715.2/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 72.8 there (5 gm)
• +11.0 wet forecast — averages 83.1 in the wet (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 76.6 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 151 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.