6.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.1 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.6
+0.3 opponent leak — they concede 196.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 8.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o6.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Oregonvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
51.4
29
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Oregon 51.4/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
43
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Oregon 1.1/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.2
44
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Oregon 14.2/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Oregon 0.1/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
59
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Oregon 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
29
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Oregon 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
94
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Oregon 1.2/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.0
38
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Oregon 20.0/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Oregon51.4
29
SGI1925.5
100
Oregon 51.4/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Oregon1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Runs
196.2per game · league avg 185.9
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else8.4(134)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)10.4(7)+2.2
Dry games8.3(127)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Runs
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-10%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima7.111+55%
07-31DOLRay Stone6.78+19%
07-31DOLFelise Kaufusi5.30-100%
07-31DOLBradley Schneider4.80-100%
07-26GLDArama Hau6.78+20%
07-26GLDZane Harrison7.57-7%
07-26GLDChris Randall7.18+13%
07-26GLDOliver Pascoe5.16+17%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Oregon's. Computed from this app's own records.