56.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 54.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 60.2
+7.7 opponent leak — they concede 1914.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 78.0 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o54.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Oregonvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
54.2
31
Run Metresneutral
100
1914.7
Oregon 54.2/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
44
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
Oregon 1.2/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.3
44
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Oregon 14.3/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Triesneutral
94
5.1
Oregon 0.1/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
57
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Oregon 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Oregon 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
94
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Oregon 1.3/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.8
39
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
598.3
Oregon 20.8/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Oregon54.2
31
SGI1914.7
100
Oregon 54.2/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Oregon1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Run Metres
1914.7per game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium102.0(1)+23.6
Everywhere else78.4(134)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)96.4(7)+18.8
Dry games77.6(128)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Run Metres
Avg diff
-5.3
Avg diff %
-11%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROBlayke Brailey51.824-54%
07-31DOLFelise Kaufusi48.80-100%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima49.4100+103%
07-26GLDChris Randall60.881+33%
07-26GLDZane Harrison48.260+24%
07-26GLDArama Hau57.973+26%
07-18WARWayde Egan49.741-18%
07-18WAREddie Ieremia-Toeava55.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±8.1 of Oregon's. Computed from this app's own records.