30.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 30.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 29.9
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 345.9/game vs a 344.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 18.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o30.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jessevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
106.7
66
Run Metresneutral
100
1914.7
Jesse 106.7/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
35
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
Jesse 0.9/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
30.2
84
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Jesse 30.2/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
55
Triesneutral
94
5.1
Jesse 0.2/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Jesse 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
43
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Jesse 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
57
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Jesse 0.4/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.1
75
Post Contact Metresfavorable
88
598.3
Jesse 40.1/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jesse106.7
66
SGI1914.7
100
Jesse 106.7/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jesse0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tackles
345.9per game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackles
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium22.0(1)+0.5
Everywhere else21.5(50)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)16.0(3)-5.8
Dry games21.8(48)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Tackles
Avg diff
-0.8
Avg diff %
-4%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROBriton Nikora28.926-10%
08-09CROCameron McInnes34.635+1%
08-09CROBilly Burns28.722-23%
08-09CROTeig Wilton33.151+54%
07-31DOLKurt Donoghoe26.219-27%
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu33.931-9%
07-31DOLMorgan Knowles34.141+20%
07-31DOLTom Gilbert30.519-38%
Similar = season average within ±4.5 of Jesse's. Computed from this app's own records.