13.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 12.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.7
+0.7 opponent leak — they concede 196.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 7.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 21 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o12.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jessevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
107.8
67
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Jesse 107.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
38
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Jesse 0.9/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
30.6
85
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Jesse 30.6/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
58
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Jesse 0.2/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Jesse 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Jesse 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
60
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Jesse 0.5/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.8
76
Post Contact Metresfavorable
88
601.3
Jesse 40.8/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jesse107.8
67
SGI1925.5
100
Jesse 107.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jesse0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Runs
196.2per game · league avg 185.9
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else8.3(50)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)4.7(3)-3.9
Dry games8.6(47)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Runs
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
+3%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu11.613+13%
07-31DOLTom Gilbert11.514+21%
07-26GLDJojo Fifita11.49-21%
07-26GLDMoeaki Fotuaika10.716+50%
07-26GLDSiale Faeamani13.90-100%
07-26GLDBeau Fermor14.417+18%
07-18WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.812+2%
07-18WARTanner Stowers-Smith11.516+39%
Similar = season average within ±1.9 of Jesse's. Computed from this app's own records.