112.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 107.8 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 118.2
+15.5 opponent leak — they concede 1925.5/game vs a 1690.9 league average
vs them: averages 80.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o107.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (79%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jessevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
107.8
67
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Jesse 107.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
37
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Jesse 0.9/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
30.6
85
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Jesse 30.6/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
58
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Jesse 0.2/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.1
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Jesse 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Jesse 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
59
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Jesse 0.5/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.8
76
Post Contact Metresfavorable
88
601.3
Jesse 40.8/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 545.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jesse107.8
67
SGI1925.5
100
Jesse 107.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jesse0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Run Metres
1925.5per game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else71.6(50)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)40.3(3)-33.2
Dry games73.6(47)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Run Metres
Avg diff
+15.8
Avg diff %
+15%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu107.3123+15%
07-31DOLTom Gilbert108.6125+15%
07-26GLDBeau Fermor122.7151+23%
07-26GLDMoeaki Fotuaika102.5168+64%
07-26GLDJojo Fifita118.587-27%
07-26GLDJayden Campbell108.7113+4%
07-18WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira112.4148+32%
07-18WARAdam Pompey95.387-9%
Similar = season average within ±16.2 of Jesse's. Computed from this app's own records.