• 95.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 91.8 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 101.3
• +1.6 opponent leak — they concede 1715.2/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• +39.2 at this ground — averages 134.8 there (5 gm)
• −13.4 wet forecast — averages 82.2 in the wet (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 119.3 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 31 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.