8.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.5 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.3
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 196.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 7.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o8.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (62%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Billyvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
71.8
42
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Billy 71.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
42
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Billy 1.1/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
29.1
82
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Billy 29.1/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
64
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Billy 0.2/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
57
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Billy 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
62
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Billy 0.3/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
83
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Billy 0.8/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
26.1
48
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Billy 26.1/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Billy71.8
42
SGI1925.5
100
Billy 71.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Billy1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Runs
196.2per game · league avg 185.9
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else7.2(80)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)4.8(4)-2.6
Dry games7.4(76)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Runs
Avg diff
-0.6
Avg diff %
-5%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLKurt Donoghoe8.610+16%
07-31DOLMax Plath8.77-20%
07-31DOLMorgan Knowles7.85-36%
07-31DOLIsaiya Katoa9.86-38%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler8.36-28%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima7.111+55%
07-31DOLFrancis Molo8.17-14%
07-26GLDCooper Bai7.49+22%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.