76.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 74.6 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 80.2
+10.4 opponent leak — they concede 1914.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 88.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o74.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Billyvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
74.6
45
Run Metresneutral
100
1914.7
Billy 74.6/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
47
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
Billy 1.3/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.7
82
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Billy 28.7/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
67
Triesneutral
94
5.1
Billy 0.3/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
55
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Billy 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
67
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Billy 0.3/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
81
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Billy 0.8/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
26.9
50
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
598.3
Billy 26.9/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Billy74.6
45
SGI1914.7
100
Billy 74.6/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Billy1.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Run Metres
1914.7per game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium127.0(1)+63.8
Everywhere else63.2(80)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)46.5(4)-18.4
Dry games64.9(77)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Run Metres
Avg diff
+7.3
Avg diff %
+11%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROMawene Hiroti72.0150+108%
08-09CROCameron McInnes79.278-2%
08-09CROBriton Nikora68.7113+64%
07-31DOLMax Plath83.768-19%
07-31DOLFrancis Molo75.765-14%
07-31DOLMorgan Knowles69.557-18%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler80.953-34%
07-31DOLIsaiya Katoa69.173+6%
Similar = season average within ±11.2 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.