33.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 33.2 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 34.3
+3.3 opponent leak — they concede 598.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
vs them: averages 37.4 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o33.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tobyvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
85.0
52
Run Metresneutral
100
1914.7
Toby 85.0/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
46
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
Toby 1.2/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
22.1
66
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Toby 22.1/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
94
5.1
Toby 0.0/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Toby 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
34
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Toby 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
59
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Toby 0.5/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.2
62
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
598.3
Toby 33.2/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Toby85.0
52
SGI1914.7
100
Toby 85.0/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Toby1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Post Contact Metres
598.3per game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else39.7(112)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)33.6(7)-6.5
Dry games40.1(105)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+3.5
Avg diff %
+10%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROTeig Wilton31.234+9%
08-09CROWilliam Kennedy35.634-4%
08-09CROThomas Hazelton33.052+58%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler29.117-42%
07-31DOLMax Plath28.823-20%
07-31DOLTom Gilbert35.542+18%
07-18WARKurt Capewell36.229-20%
07-18WARTaine Tuaupiki31.958+82%
Similar = season average within ±5.0 of Toby's. Computed from this app's own records.