11.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.7 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.1
+0.6 opponent leak — they concede 196.2/game vs a 186.3 league average
vs them: averages 15.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o11.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.1°C☂ 0.5mm (79%)🌬 17.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Nichovs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
98.1
60
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Nicho 98.1/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
52
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Nicho 1.5/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
22.7
69
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Nicho 22.7/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
85
Triesfavorable
100
5.2
Nicho 0.4/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.1
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
99
Try Assistsfavorable
69
3.9
Nicho 1.3/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
91
Line Breaksfavorable
81
6.1
Nicho 0.7/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.6
96
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Nicho 1.6/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.4
34
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Nicho 18.4/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 545.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Nicho98.1
60
SGI1925.5
100
Nicho 98.1/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Nicho1.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Runs
196.2per game · league avg 186.3
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else14.6(131)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)14.8(8)+0.2
Dry games14.6(123)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Runs
Avg diff
+0.8
Avg diff %
+7%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLIsaiya Katoa10.06-40%
07-31DOLTom Gilbert11.614+21%
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu11.413+14%
07-26GLDJojo Fifita11.49-21%
07-26GLDMoeaki Fotuaika10.716+50%
07-18WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.812+2%
07-18WARAdam Pompey11.510-13%
07-18WARTanner Stowers-Smith11.516+39%
Similar = season average within ±1.8 of Nicho's. Computed from this app's own records.