• 14.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.2 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 14.0
• +0.8 opponent leak — they concede 196.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
• vs them: averages 12.1 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.