• 6.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.9 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.1
• +0.4 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.7 league average
• −1.4 at this ground — averages 4.6 there (52 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.5 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.