102.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 105.8 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 98.2
+10.0 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+11.7 at this ground — averages 114.5 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 100.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o105.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jessevs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
105.8
65
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Jesse 105.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.7
59
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Jesse 1.7/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.9
22
Tacklesunfavorable
38
340.0
Jesse 5.9/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
87
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Jesse 0.5/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
54
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Jesse 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
79
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Jesse 0.5/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
21
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Jesse 0.1/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
30.9
58
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Jesse 30.9/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jesse105.8
65
GLD1851.3
94
Jesse 105.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jesse1.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Run Metres
1851.3per game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium114.5(4)+31.3
Everywhere else83.2(100)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)92.2(6)+8.3
Dry games83.9(98)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Run Metres
Avg diff
+10.3
Avg diff %
+9%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLHeilum Luki105.0122+16%
08-01WARTanner Stowers-Smith108.9177+62%
08-01WARAli Leiataua98.2174+77%
08-01WARAdam Pompey95.30-100%
08-01WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira112.4102-9%
07-26SGIHamish Stewart96.9105+8%
07-26SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga101.9154+51%
07-26SGIMathew Feagai92.660-35%
Similar = season average within ±15.9 of Jesse's. Computed from this app's own records.