43.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 44.1 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 43.4
−4.0 opponent leak — they concede 494.6/game vs a 544.6 league average
+12.7 at this ground — averages 56.5 there (57 gm)
vs them: averages 54.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Post Contact Metres
494.6per game · league avg 544.6
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Suncorp Stadium56.5(57)+4.2
Everywhere else52.2(49)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)63.0(8)+9.2
Dry games53.8(98)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-7.1
Avg diff %
-16%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLiam Henry38.830-23%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti41.129-29%
08-07PENMoses Leota37.840+6%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo46.426-44%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i47.627-43%
08-01GLDKeano Kini46.159+28%
08-01GLDDean Ieremia44.252+18%
08-01GLDJojo Fifita45.327-40%
Similar = season average within ±6.6 of Patrick's. Computed from this app's own records.