123.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 127.1 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 118.7
+12.0 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+34.9 at this ground — averages 158.6 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 146.3 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 34 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o127.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Patrickvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
127.1
78
Run Metresfavorable
94
1851.3
Patrick 127.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
47
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Patrick 1.3/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
45.3
100
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Patrick 45.3/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
34
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Patrick 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
62
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Patrick 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Patrick 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
66
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Patrick 0.6/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
44.1
81
Post Contact Metresfavorable
94
605.3
Patrick 44.1/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Patrick127.1
78
GLD1851.3
94
Patrick 127.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Patrick1.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Run Metres
1851.3per game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium158.6(5)+7.0
Everywhere else151.6(101)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)161.1(8)+10.0
Dry games151.2(98)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Run Metres
Avg diff
+24.6
Avg diff %
+21%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLThomas Mikaele126.3168+33%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue121.7156+28%
08-01WARErin Clark134.9141+5%
08-01WARTanner Stowers-Smith108.9177+62%
08-01WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad128.8253+96%
08-01WARJames Fisher-Harris143.897-33%
08-01WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira112.4102-9%
07-26SGIValentine Holmes128.6108-16%
Similar = season average within ±19.1 of Patrick's. Computed from this app's own records.