26.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 25.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 26.6
+2.9 opponent leak — they concede 605.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
−1.5 at this ground — averages 24.6 there (7 gm)
vs them: averages 27.1 over 11 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 73 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 25.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Reecevs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
133.8
82
Run Metresfavorable
94
1851.3
Reece 133.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.4
99
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Reece 5.4/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.7
15
Tacklesunfavorable
38
340.0
Reece 4.7/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
82
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Reece 0.4/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
95
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Reece 0.7/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
80
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Reece 0.5/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
77
Offloadsfavorable
88
11.2
Reece 0.7/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
25.7
47
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Reece 25.7/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Reece133.8
82
GLD1851.3
94
Reece 133.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Reece5.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Post Contact Metres
605.3per game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium24.6(7)+0.3
Everywhere else24.3(103)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)28.4(7)+4.4
Dry games24.0(103)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+5.1
Avg diff %
+18%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLJohn Bateman26.030+15%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt27.441+50%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame28.931+7%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue28.712-58%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater23.121-9%
08-01WARAli Leiataua29.147+61%
08-01WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira24.010-58%
08-01WARJacob Laban26.362+136%
Similar = season average within ±3.9 of Reece's. Computed from this app's own records.