134.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 133.8 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 134.5
−11.5 opponent leak — they concede 1543/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+14.5 at this ground — averages 148.5 there (45 gm)
vs them: averages 114.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Run Metres
1543.0per game · league avg 1687.8
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Suncorp Stadium148.5(45)+19.6
Everywhere else128.9(65)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)144.6(7)+8.2
Dry games136.4(103)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Run Metres
Avg diff
-29.2
Avg diff %
-24%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENPaul Alamoti136.981-41%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo120.652-57%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i122.476-38%
08-07PENLiam Henry119.882-32%
08-01GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui145.3174+20%
08-01GLDJojo Fifita118.588-26%
08-01GLDDean Ieremia126.4113-11%
08-01GLDBeau Fermor122.7113-8%
Similar = season average within ±20.1 of Reece's. Computed from this app's own records.