Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
24.8+11.3 vs your line
24.1 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
+0.7 opponent leak — they concede 354.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
vs them: averages 30.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Signalsopponent ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackles
354.8per game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Ocean Protect Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else28.3(15)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)19.0(2)-10.8
Dry games29.8(13)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackles
Avg diff
+4.9
Avg diff %
+39%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGIJacob Halangahu14.326+82%
08-09SGIValentine Holmes12.316+31%
08-09SGIJosh Kerr14.90-100%
08-02SOUAshton Ward14.314-2%
08-02SOUJack Wighton12.524+92%
08-02SOUJohn Radel12.333+169%
07-26MANJoey Walsh13.830+118%
07-26MANReuben Garrick12.53-76%
Similar = season average within ±2.0 of Matty's. Computed from this app's own records.