• 3.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.3 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.7
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 354.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
• vs them: averages 7.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 10 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.