1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 1.7
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Stanleyvs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
15.5
7
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Stanley 15.5/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
7
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
38
31.9
Stanley 0.2/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
7.3
25
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Stanley 7.3/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.9
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Stanley 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Stanley 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Stanley 0.0/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
100
11.6
Stanley 0.0/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.2
12
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Stanley 6.2/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.2
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Stanley15.5
7
MAN1613.3
31
Stanley 15.5/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Stanley0.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Runs
186.4per game · league avg 185.9
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else1.7(6)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games1.7(6)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MAN · Runs
Avg diff
-0.4
Avg diff %
-30%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MELJack Hetherington2.10-100%
07-26CROHohepa Puru2.91-66%
07-19GLDSam Verrills1.40-100%
06-27MELJosiah Pahulu0.30-100%
06-27MELJack Hetherington2.13+45%
06-20CBYAlekolasimi Jones2.15+135%
06-20CBYBailey Hayward2.11-52%
06-04SOUBronson Garlick2.12-4%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Stanley's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5