• 5.5 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 349.4/game vs a 344.9 league average
• +1.8 at this ground — averages 7.3 there (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 26 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.