Only 1 game in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
4.1+3.6 vs your line
4.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 175.7/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 10.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 26: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Asuvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1687.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
44
4.7
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Asu0.0
0
WAR1543.0
13
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1687.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Asu0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Runs
175.7per game · league avg 185.9
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else8.5(46)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)4.5(2)-4.2
Dry games8.7(44)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Runs
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
+2%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENBilly Scott0.30-100%
08-01GLDSam Verrills1.40-100%
07-25CBYJed Reardon1.50-100%
07-25CBYGordon Chan Kum Tong0.50-100%
07-10WSTJared Haywood1.33+125%
07-10WSTJosese Lanyon1.21-17%
06-13CROJayden Berrell1.12+80%
05-31PENBilly Scott0.31+225%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Asu's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5