43.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 43.5 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 4 43.5
−1.9 opponent leak — they concede 1613.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o43.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Hugovs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
43.5
23
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Hugo 43.5/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
31
Tackle Breaksneutral
38
31.9
Hugo 0.8/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
4
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Hugo 1.8/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Hugo 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Hugo 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Hugo 0.0/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
100
11.6
Hugo 0.0/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
9.8
19
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Hugo 9.8/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Hugo43.5
23
MAN1613.3
31
Hugo 43.5/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Hugo0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Run Metres
1613.3per game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else43.5(4)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games43.5(4)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MAN · Run Metres
Avg diff
-3.9
Avg diff %
-8%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MELManaia Waitere45.20-100%
08-08MELSiulagi Tuimalatu-Brown49.483+68%
08-08MELAngus Hinchey37.070+89%
07-26CROBraydon Trindall41.722-47%
07-19GLDZane Harrison48.257+18%
07-19GLDOliver Pascoe41.166+61%
07-12NQLSam McIntyre40.50-100%
07-05PARJack De Belin46.120-57%
Similar = season average within ±6.5 of Hugo's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown96.5