• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.7 league average
• +0.8 at this ground — averages 1.9 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.