1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.0
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 475.8/game vs a 544.6 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 2.1 there (7 gm)
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Post Contact Metres
475.8per game · league avg 544.6
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At CommBank Stadium2.1(7)+1.3
Everywhere else0.8(6)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-1.7
Dry games1.7(12)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SYD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
-19%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07CBYJake Turpin0.30-100%
08-07CBYBailey Hayward2.80-100%
07-30NQLEthan King1.90-100%
07-30NQLKaiden Lahrs2.70-100%
07-24NEWPhoenix Crossland1.72+18%
07-17MELJosiah Pahulu1.10-100%
06-26BRIBlake Mozer2.86+114%
06-26BRIBen Hunt2.68+212%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5