11.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 12.0 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.3
+1.5 opponent leak — they concede 618.4/game vs a 545.7 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 11.4 there (8 gm)
vs them: averages 14.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o12.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Olivervs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
41.1
21
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Oliver 41.1/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
44
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
Oliver 1.2/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.1
95
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Oliver 38.1/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
67
Triesneutral
81
4.8
Oliver 0.2/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
68
Try Assistsneutral
88
4.1
Oliver 0.2/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
51
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Oliver 0.2/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
72
Offloadsfavorable
75
10.3
Oliver 0.6/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.0
22
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Oliver 12.0/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 545.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Oliver41.1
21
NQL1785.8
75
Oliver 41.1/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Oliver1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Post Contact Metres
618.4per game · league avg 545.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium11.4(8)-1.2
Everywhere else12.6(9)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)13.0(2)+1.1
Dry games11.9(15)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+10.2
Avg diff %
+89%
Hit rate
7/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-30SYDSam Walker11.410-12%
07-12MANJoey Walsh11.232+185%
06-27PENFreddy Lussick10.518+71%
06-21WARWayde Egan12.625+99%
06-06DOLIsaiya Katoa12.920+55%
05-31CBRTom Starling12.924+86%
05-24SOUCody Walker10.912+10%
05-24SOULiam Le Blanc10.533+216%
Similar = season average within ±1.8 of Oliver's. Computed from this app's own records.