1.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.2 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 5 1.2
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 548.9/game vs a 544.6 league average
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lukevs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
8.8
4
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Luke 8.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
9
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Luke 0.2/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.2
13
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Luke 4.2/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Luke 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
70
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Luke 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Luke 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Luke 0.0/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
2
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Luke 1.2/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Luke8.8
4
PEN1576.6
25
Luke 8.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Luke0.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Post Contact Metres
548.9per game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Go Media Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else1.2(5)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games1.2(5)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+1.2
Avg diff %
+95%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARMorgan Gannon1.04+300%
07-16BRIBen Hunt2.60-100%
06-20GLDAdam Christensen2.00-100%
06-20GLDSam Verrills1.76+256%
06-07WSTCharlie Murray1.913+600%
05-31WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
05-10CBRChevy Stewart2.30-100%
05-03MANBrandon Wakeham2.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5