124.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 124.3 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 124.3
+2.1 opponent leak — they concede 1715.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
vs them: averages 111.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o124.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jensenvs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
124.3
76
Run Metresfavorable
63
1715.7
Jensen 124.3/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.0
65
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.7
Jensen 2.0/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.6
7
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Jensen 2.6/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
38
4.0
Jensen 0.0/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Jensen 0.0/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
64
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Jensen 0.3/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Offloadsneutral
63
10.0
Jensen 0.1/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
39.9
75
Post Contact Metresfavorable
63
558.0
Jensen 39.9/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Jensen124.3
76
NEW1715.7
63
Jensen 124.3/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jensen2.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Run Metres
1715.7per game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At McDonald Jones Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else124.3(7)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)155.0(1)+35.8
Dry games119.2(6)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Run Metres
Avg diff
-26.1
Avg diff %
-20%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRSavelio Tamale135.30-100%
08-09CBRXavier Savage131.876-42%
08-09CBRCorey Horsburgh115.7112-3%
08-09CBRJoseph Tapine135.0129-4%
08-01BRIPatrick Carrigan127.191-28%
08-01BRIDeine Mariner134.8152+13%
08-01BRIReece Walsh133.8168+26%
08-01BRIJordan Riki108.986-21%
Similar = season average within ±18.6 of Jensen's. Computed from this app's own records.