2.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.4 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 9 2.4
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 514.9/game vs a 544.6 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Brianvs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
8.3
3
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Brian 8.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
38
31.9
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
1
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Brian 0.9/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
100
11.6
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.4
4
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Brian 2.4/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Brian8.3
3
MAN1613.3
31
Brian 8.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Brian0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Post Contact Metres
514.9per game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At 4 Pines Park—(0)
Everywhere else2.4(9)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-2.8
Dry games2.8(8)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MAN · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-14%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-19GLDSam Verrills1.70-100%
07-12NQLSoni Luke3.41-70%
07-05PARJonah Pezet3.11-68%
06-27MELJosiah Pahulu1.10-100%
06-20CBYBailey Hayward2.80-100%
06-04SOUBronson Garlick3.65+40%
05-23GLDLuke Sommerton2.713+387%
05-23GLDAdam Christensen2.00-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Brian's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown28.5