19.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 17.5 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 21.9
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 539.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
+2.2 at this ground — averages 21.4 there (9 gm)
vs them: averages 13.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o17.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.4°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
44.4
23
Run Metresunfavorable
38
1652.5
Josh 44.4/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
43
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Josh 1.1/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.5
19
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Josh 5.5/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
44
4.0
Josh 0.0/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Josh 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Josh 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Josh 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.5
33
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Josh 17.5/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Josh44.4
23
DOL1652.5
38
Josh 44.4/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Josh1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Post Contact Metres
539.6per game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At 4 Pines Park21.4(9)+7.0
Everywhere else14.4(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-18.7
Dry games18.7(18)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs DOL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-2.9
Avg diff %
-14%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIVa'a Semu16.624+44%
08-08BRIJack Gosiewski19.80-100%
07-31SGIJacob Halangahu15.840+153%
07-31SGIJosh Kerr17.929+62%
07-19NQLMatthew Lodge17.55-71%
07-19NQLJake Clifford15.10-100%
07-19NQLTom Dearden18.48-56%
07-11CRONicho Hynes18.711-41%
Similar = season average within ±2.6 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown28.5