0.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 1.0
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 181.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Runs
181.6per game · league avg 185.9
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At Suncorp Stadium0.0(3)-1.8
Everywhere else1.8(4)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)2.5(2)+2.1
Dry games0.4(5)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs DOL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.7
Avg diff %
-48%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIBlake Mozer1.20-100%
07-19NQLEthan King0.80-100%
07-11CROJayden Berrell1.10-100%
07-05NEWKyle McCarthy0.000%
07-05NEWPhoenix Crossland2.01-50%
06-27WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
06-27WARLuke Metcalf2.30-100%
06-20WSTJosese Lanyon1.22+67%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Sebastian's. Computed from this app's own records.