• 6.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 7.7
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 1715.2/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 33 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.