2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.0 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 4 2.0
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 1838.8/game vs a 1687.8 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Run Metres
1838.8per game · league avg 1687.8
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Suncorp Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else2.0(4)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games2.0(4)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs BRI · Run Metres
Avg diff
-1.8
Avg diff %
-100%
Hit rate
0/2
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-16PENBilly Scott2.90-100%
04-24CBYJake Turpin0.60-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Morgan's. Computed from this app's own records.