2.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 354.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
−0.9 at this ground — averages 2 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 1.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o3.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Setuvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
154.8
91
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Setu 154.8/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.4
96
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Setu 4.4/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.2
8
Tacklesneutral
88
354.8
Setu 3.2/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
91
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Setu 0.6/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
66
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Setu 0.2/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
93
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Setu 0.7/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
73
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Setu 0.7/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
51.7
90
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Setu 51.7/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Setu154.8
91
CRO1511.1
0
Setu 154.8/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Setu4.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackles
354.8per game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium2.0(4)-1.5
Everywhere else3.5(14)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games3.2(18)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackles
Avg diff
+1.4
Avg diff %
+40%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGITyrell Sloan3.20-100%
08-02SOUJye Gray4.210+139%
08-02SOUMatthew Dufty1.94+108%
08-02SOUJayden Sullivan4.60-100%
08-02SOUAlex Johnston4.57+55%
07-26MANNicholas Lenaz3.514+300%
07-17NEWGreg Marzhew1.81-43%
07-17NEWKalyn Ponga3.32-38%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Setu's. Computed from this app's own records.