40.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 40.2 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 41.5
−0.6 opponent leak — they concede 340/game vs a 344.9 league average
−9.9 at this ground — averages 30.8 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 29.7 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o40.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Heilumvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
105.0
64
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Heilum 105.0/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.1
70
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Heilum 2.1/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.2
98
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Heilum 40.2/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
88
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Heilum 0.5/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
38
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Heilum 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
87
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Heilum 0.6/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
15
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Heilum 0.0/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.6
72
Post Contact Metresfavorable
94
605.3
Heilum 38.6/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Heilum105.0
64
GLD1851.3
94
Heilum 105.0/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Heilum2.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Tackles
340.0per game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackles
At Cbus Super Stadium30.8(5)+3.8
Everywhere else27.0(73)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)28.0(3)+0.8
Dry games27.2(75)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Tackles
Avg diff
+5.7
Avg diff %
+14%
Hit rate
7/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLReuben Cotter38.749+27%
07-26SGIToby Couchman40.854+32%
07-26SGIDylan Egan41.945+7%
07-26SGIHamish Stewart43.344+2%
07-26SGIRyan Couchman44.957+27%
07-26SGIDamien Cook37.427-28%
07-19MANJake Simpkin37.953+40%
07-12MELTrent Loiero36.338+5%
Similar = season average within ±6.0 of Heilum's. Computed from this app's own records.