39.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 38.2 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 40.3
+3.8 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+8.6 at this ground — averages 47.7 there (6 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 152 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o38.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 15.7°C☂ 0.9mm (77%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Francisvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
38.2
20
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Francis 38.2/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
26
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Francis 0.7/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.4
40
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Francis 13.4/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
33
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Francis 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
70
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Francis 0.2/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
70
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Francis 0.3/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
54
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Francis 0.4/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.5
28
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Francis 14.5/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Francis38.2
20
GLD1851.3
94
Francis 38.2/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Francis0.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Run Metres
1851.3per game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At McDonald Jones Stadium47.7(6)+15.8
Everywhere else31.9(9)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-40.9
Dry games40.9(14)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Run Metres
Avg diff
+19.1
Avg diff %
+50%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLSam McIntyre40.50-100%
08-01WARChanel Harris-Tavita41.9134+219%
08-01WARSam Healey35.838+6%
08-01WARRiley Price40.0400%
07-26SGIJacob Halangahu33.274+123%
07-26SGIKyle Flanagan37.962+64%
07-26SGIJacob Liddle33.443+29%
07-19MANSimione Laiafi40.665+60%
Similar = season average within ±5.7 of Francis's. Computed from this app's own records.