12.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 12.0 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.4
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
+1.3 at this ground — averages 13.5 there (8 gm)
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o12.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Mosesvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
132.7
82
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Moses 132.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.0
93
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Moses 4.0/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.4
24
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Moses 6.4/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
97
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Moses 0.8/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
51
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Moses 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
98
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Moses 1.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
38
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Moses 0.2/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
34.6
64
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Moses 34.6/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Moses132.7
82
PEN1576.6
25
Moses 132.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Moses4.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park13.5(8)+3.8
Everywhere else9.8(8)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)12.0(2)+0.4
Dry games11.6(14)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-0.5
Avg diff %
-5%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.811-7%
08-07WARTanner Stowers-Smith11.511-5%
08-07WARAdam Pompey11.50-100%
08-01CBRSebastian Kris11.812+2%
08-01CBRXavier Savage11.915+26%
08-01CBRZac Hosking11.613+12%
08-01CBRCorey Horsburgh13.519+41%
07-23PARJosh Addo-Carr12.311-11%
Similar = season average within ±1.8 of Moses's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5