• 10.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.4
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 367.1/game vs a 369 league average
• −1.2 at this ground — averages 9.6 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.